(This end of this story was updated with current playoff scenarios as of Thursday, Oct. 24.)
It’s been nine years since the Riverhounds‘ postseason status was unknown entering the final week of the season, but after a remarkable second-half turnaround this season, the Hounds’ control their own path to the playoffs going into the season’s final day.
With six teams still alive for the final four spots in the Eastern Conference entering the week, the Hounds hold the seventh position with 45 points after what could be a season-making 2-0 win at Loudoun United FC last Saturday.
So what needs to happen for the Hounds to get the job done entering the regular-season finale at home Saturday against El Paso?
1. Win and get in
The simplest, no-nonsense way for the Hounds to secure, at worst, the No. 7 seed is to win against the Locomotive. At 48 points, the only team that can leap the Hounds in the standings is Hartford Athletic, which has 43 points but two matches remaining — more on that below.
2. Midweek mayhem, or a clearer view in Florida?
One element keeping the playoff picture murky is the postponed match between Hartford and the Tampa Bay Rowdies, which will finally be made up at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday, Oct. 23 at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla.
But who Hounds fans should cheer for depends largely upon what is the desired outcome: A safer path to clinch, or a chance at a higher seed?
A Rowdies win or a draw would secure a playoff spot for Tampa Bay (as well as Rhode Island FC), reducing the field to four teams — Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Hartford and Loudoun — for two places. But a Rowdies win would also mean the Hounds need only a draw against El Paso to secure postseason soccer, as they hold head-to-head tiebreakers and the three-way tiebreaker with North Carolina and Hartford, the other two teams who could finish on 46 points.
A Hartford win, on the other hand, would bump the Hounds down to eighth place entering Saturday. However, it would also mean that the Hounds could pass Rhode Island (48 points), Tampa Bay (46 points) and Hartford (46 points), opening the long-shot possibility the Hounds could reach as high as the No. 5 seed with a win and setbacks for the other three.
3. Tiebreaker kings
The Hounds’ biggest advantage in the playoff chase is their success against the teams they’re directly battling, and the Eastern Conference at large.
The USL Championship’s first tiebreaker is head-to-head results, meaning the Hounds win a one-on-one comparison with Rhode Island and Loudoun, and they lose only to Tampa Bay.
The next tiebreaker is points earned against Eastern Conference foes, and that is where the Hounds shine brightest. With an 8-5-9 record (33 points), the Hounds have a total unreachable by any of the other five contenders except Tampa Bay, but that is a moot point because two Rowdies wins puts them out of reach to be tied with the Hounds, anyway.
Because of their superior conference record, the Hounds come out ahead of North Carolina and Hartford in a two-team tie, and they lead virtually every possible three-or-more-team tie, as head-to-head only applies if a team has won the season series against all teams involved in the tie.
4. Preparing for the worst
Even if disaster strikes against El Paso, the Hounds have a path to the playoffs, but it would require one of two pieces of help: North Carolina losing at home to a Las Vegas Lights team battling to earn a home playoff game in the West, or Hartford failing to win either of its two remaining matches — Wednesday at Tampa Bay and Saturday at Orange County. Both of those occurring would allow the Hounds to keep the No. 7 seed.
In those scenarios, the tiebreakers would come to the Hounds’ rescue, as they would remain ahead of any of North Carolina, Hartford, Loudoun or already-eliminated Birmingham on 45 points.
With all that considered, things look pretty good for the Hounds in their bid try to claim a seventh consecutive berth in the USL Championship Playoffs.
(Thursday update in italics) And after Hartford and Tampa Bay played to a 2-2 draw Wednesday, the Hounds’ path to clinch became a bit clearer.
• Win vs. El Paso
• Draw vs. El Paso AND one of North Carolina FC loss/draw or Hartford Athletic loss/draw
• Loss vs. El Paso AND one of North Carolina FC loss or Hartford Athletic loss/draw
A win would enable the Hounds to be seeded anywhere from No. 5 to No. 7 in the Eastern Conference, depending on other results. With a draw or loss, the Hounds will be either the No. 7 or No. 8 seed, should they qualify.
But for all the number crunching and possibilities, the team’s top priority is handling things on their own terms by taking a fourth straight win Saturday night against El Paso.
